Oldham West and Royton by-election prediction

Donkey Labour rosette 650

Usually by-elections don’t matter. They make no real world difference to the parties in Westminster. And usually the government party lose out because voters are getting a free chance at making a protest. However it is very different this time and it is Labour who are being protested against.

Let’s look at the facts:

  • There are a whole swathe of constituencies in the North of England where voting Labour is a tribal thing passed down from father to son. So you can stick a red rosette on a donkey and it will become an MP. Just look at the Labour benches in the House of Commons to see that this is true.
  • Oldham West and Royton is one of the safest Labour seats in Britain. It was represented by Michael Meacher, of the Labour Party, from 1970 until his death on 20 October 2015. At the May General Election he got 54.8% of the vote, up 9.3%. When Labour were doing very badly elsewhere. UKIP came second with 20.6%, a swing of +17.4%.
  • However Scotland has proven that Labour voters, when given an alternative that is politically correct for them, will desert en masse. Because they know that Labour governments only bring them harm. Socialism is pure evil every time anyone tries to implement it.
  • UKIP have cleverly re-invented themselves from being a libertarian protest group for disaffected octogenarian Conservatives to being the representatives of every Sun reading working man.
  • At the General Election in May UKIP had a huge success nationally, they got 3,881,129 votes, 12.6% of the total, a 9.5% increase on 2010. However our FPTP system meant that they only won one seat. But UKIP came second in a whole swathe (120) of seats, especially across the North of England.
  • In October 2014 the Heywood and Middleton by-election followed the death of its Labour MP Jim Dobbin, from acute alcohol toxicity with food aspiration. This is a neighbouring constituency to Oldham West and Royton. UKIP increased their vote then by 36% compared to the previous General Election, getting 38.7% of the vote to Labour’s 40.9%. Their candidate was  John Bickley.
  • John Bickley is contesting Oldham West and Royton this time. As a proven vote winner in the region he is a very solid candidate and has run an excellent campaign.
  • Conservative voters in Oldham West and Royton have no chance. In May their candidate got only 19% of the vote, a negative swing of 4.7%. So many (most perhaps) will vote tactically, for UKIP, to help to remove the scourge of socialism.
  • Labour has become a neosocialist party run from London by professional politicians with little or no real world experience. Mostly from a metropolitan “elite”, who have never had a proper job and who go “Up North” as rarely as possible. Jeremy Corbyn is one of these, he is toxic to very many Northern Labour voters. Neosocialist hypocrisy and contempt for their voter base is incredible.
  • Corbyn is leading the Labour party very badly. So they have run a lacklustre campaign in Oldham West and Royton. Almost as if the experienced Labour party workers haven’t got their heart in it.
  • Corbyn has politics that are seen as the opposite of those of the working man. He is anti monarchy, he makes friends with terrorists and does not support the British military.
  • These Northern constituencies are mostly battered economically by generations of socialism. They have high unemployment, low wages and a poor quality of life. They also often have high levels of immigration from the developing world, which many voters there blame for their economic travails. So there is an undeniable element of racism in many people’s voting intentions, which obviously massively favours UKIP.
  • At the Heywood and Middleton by-election last year John Bickley distributed a leaflet which said:  “Labour’s betrayal is no more apparent than with the young white working-class girls of Rotherham and Rochdale where rather than upset immigrant communities, years of abuse were ignored and complaints swept under the carpet”. A message that resonates very strongly in Northern constituencies.
  • There has been a message to the many Asian voters, around 20% of the total, that voting UKIP is the only way to prevent a wave of Turks arriving to take their jobs and their homes.
  • The Labour candidate, Jim McMahon, who is also leader of the council, is a director of a company, Oldham Property Partnerships, which last night was revealed to be involved in an offshore tax avoidance scheme in Luxembourg. The usual Labour hypocrisy. This will cost him votes, maybe a lot of votes, with already disenfranchised Labour voters.
  • Labour have been holding sex segregated election meetings, for the Asian community, who seem too undeveloped to understand liberal Western values. This is utterly disgusting and is rank hypocrisy again, as we expect from Labour. It will also put off a lot of female Labour voters.

So there you have it. In May this year Labour had 34.2% more of the votes than UKIP, an immense mountain to surmount. But since then they have done everything possible to become unelectable. But have they done enough to lose such a huge majority? With Conservative tactical voting and disaffected Labour voters not even bothering to turn out the answer is possibly yes. But the result will be fascinating for two reasons.

Firstly a UKIP victory would signal their emergence as the second party, a viable (and preferable) alternative to Labour across a huge swathe of British constituencies. This could genuinely be a turning point in the whole complexion of British politics.

Secondly we know that Jeremy Corbyn has made Labour unelectable, he really hasn’t got the faintest idea, but the big question is how unelectable. It would take a massive swing for them to lose Oldham West and Royton. So if they do, and if it was repeatable, it means that nearly every Labour MP would lose their seat at the next General Election. Which would be utterly brilliant for the future prosperity and quality of life for everyone in Great Britain. These MPs mostly are already suffering from the threat of de-selection by Corbynistas, so losing Oldham would see them go from despair to panic. Which for any decent person would be brilliant to see after all the harm they have caused with their evil dogma.

UKIP Bickley 650

Labour Oldham 650

 

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