Brexit. So much good news

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So much noise is made about the Single Market that commentators forget that the EU forces us to be part of something much worse and much bigger. A Customs Union. The EU is the world’s largest anti-trade organisation. This means the 28 nations and 510 million people of the EU put up a united barrier against the other 7 billion people in the world. Incoming tariffs can be as high as 100% and make many things that we buy massively more expensive than they should be. Things like coffee, chocolate and Chilean wine. Not only that, these barriers hold back trade throughout the world and punish developing countries, preventing billions of people from improving their lives. The EU causes real harm to others, as well as to the people who live in it.

When we leave the EU we can tear down the tariff walls and trade with 14 times as many people. This is the greatest opportunity in British history. As a nation we were once the world’s greatest traders. The City of London proves that we are still the greatest traders when it comes to money. Brexit means we can be great at trading everything else once again.

The leftist media in Britain, such as the BBC, the Mirror and the Guardian, like to put the British down. They forget that we have the world’s fifth biggest economy. We are an economic superpower. Over the last three years we have had the highest rate of growth of all the G7 countries. And our economy is very healthy. The £/€ exchange rate is the same same as it was 5 years ago, inflation is running at half target, wages are rising at 2.5% pa, making everyone richer, there is record employment, the FTSE is at a record high and PMI (look it up if you don’t understand) is running very high. We are in a position of huge strength whilst the major economies of mainland Europe are in real trouble.

And the EU desperately needs us. Far more than we need them:

  • In 2015 we paid £13bn to the EU budget, and the EU spent £4.5bn here. So the UK’s net contribution was £8.5bn. Which is about a million pounds an hour, every hour of the year. They are going to lose this and we are going to keep it.
  • Economists at the Civitas think tank (link here) have calculated that if Britain leaves Europe without a free trade deal it would cost businesses in the remaining member states £12.9bn pa to export their goods into the UK if trade is conducted under WTO rules. British firms would face reciprocal tariffs of £5.2bn pa. A net cost to the remaining EU members of £7.7bn.
  • 5.8 million EU jobs depend on UK trade, losing these is a price the EU cannot afford to pay. Whereas here in Britain there will be a surplus of jobs as trade opens up with the world.

Huge events that the Britain hating, EU loving leftist press are failing to report are the many countries of the world that are, unsurprisingly, now running to us to do trade deals.

  • With the USA we have already done all the negotiations, as part of TTIP. It will be very quick and easy to put an agreement in place. (link)
  • Australia is understandably very keen. (link)
  • We are negotiating very positively with India. (link)
  • China is very keen to sign up. (link)
  • In fact, even by the end of July there were 27 countries saying they wanted to do a trade deal with us. (link)

As you can see we are all set to be a huge global trading power house. We don’t need the EU, we can just declare Article 50 and walk away. If they don’t want to negotiate a sensible trade deal with the UK it will harm them far more than it harms us. But remember that the EU has a long history of harming itself economically. Just ask the Greeks.

People point to the failure of the EU to make a trade deal with Canada after 7 years of negotiation. But this was not bilateral negotiation, there were 28 nations involved from the EU side, no wonder it wouldn’t work. It was shot down by the Belgian region of Walloon.

In reality trade agreement can be reached surprisingly quickly. The GATT Annecy trade round involved 34 countries and exchanged some 5,000 tariff concessions in just 5 months. The GATT Geneva II trade round involved 22 countries and achieved $2.5 billion in tariff reductions in the same time. But this was well before EU protectionism and the undemocratic Commission.

And something people don’t seem to realise is that there are already a vast number of trade deals and organisations in the world we can plug into. Look here and here.

Great Britain is poised on the brink of further greatness. And we have the immense advantage that a vastly disproportionate number of global businesses are based here: HSBC, BP, Astra Zeneca, BAE Systems, Rolls Royce aero engines, GSK, Babcock, BHP Billiton, Unilever, Rio Tinto, RBS, Diageo, Barclays, Aviva, Vodafone, Anglo American, Tesco, Prudential, BT Group, BAT, Standard Chartered, British Airways and so many more. We are exceptionally good at this sort of stuff. Leaving the EU will unleash these organisations, like never before, to do business with the world. No wonder the FT index is going through the roof.

We must rejoice, we in Britain are living in the greatest of times, with stable government, immense prosperity, a place at the World’s top tables and a glowing future based on global trade. We really, really have never had it better.

7 Comments


  1. Are food prices going to go down in future?,

    Reply

    1. Tony,

      They should, as more of the world is able to compete to supply us.
      Cheap African cane sugar instead of expensive European beet sugar, for instance.

      Reply

  2. Australia also said they currently do most of their trade with the EU via the UK and will now be opening direct links with other EU countries. Given this, and the fact that there’s only so much cheap Australian wine I can drink, and that they seem to love Vegemite more than our Marmite, just how excited am I supposed to get about a “new Australian trade deal”?

    Reply

  3. I just wish what you said was true Bruce.

    regrettably it is not that simple.

    Have you consulted with the various British producers (agriculture, food processing, low level manufacturing) whose livelihoods would be lost where we to go “tariff free”? Politically they have to be bought off with subsidies, so we lose much of the benefit of lower import costs.

    Tariff reduction can produce more benefits than costs if at the same time we get compensating tariff reductions from all these countries outside of the EU, but that is far from easy. See for example this excellent BBC article today about why India is reluctant to do trade deals with the UK

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-37872792

    and you do not event touch the problems of non-tariff rules and regulations ….

    it is not matter of left v. right. To get to even first base for making Brexit work we have to recognise that wishful thinking does not solve hard problems.

    Reply

  4. Brexit aside – your figures are bullshit because they don’t account for inflation. I assume you got them from here:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/indexoflabourcostsperhourilch/aprtojune2016

    “ILCH index figures are estimates in current prices, meaning that they are published not adjusted for inflation.”

    You’re misleading people. Also – our CPI doesn’t even include mortgage repayments / rent.

    Correct me if I’ve made a mistake.

    Reply

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