(Throughout the article click on highlighted text to see further analysis)
The recent elections were very broad in their scope, 2 Parliamentary by-elections, London and Bristol Mayors, a huge swathe of local council elections, the Welsh and Irish regional assemblies, Scottish Parliament and the Police and Crime Commissioners. So they will have a big impact on our political lives over the next few years. The Conservatives went into the elections deeply unpopular, the party is completely divided and engaged in internecine warfare over the EU, and the greedy junior doctors’ dispute is wrongly blamed on the government by some people. But Labour are more unpopular still, led by an extremist who is completely out of touch with reality and who couldn’t be trusted to run a TV remote control, never mind a country.
Let’s start in London, with the Mayor. Sadiq Khan won with 44.2% of the first round vote on a 45.3% turnout, so 20%, or 1 in 5 of the electorate voted for him. By 2011 Muslims made up 12.4% of London’s population, with high childbirth rates and mass immigration that figure is far higher now. And Labour is the political party of Islam. So it was pretty inevitable that a Muslim candidate for a Muslim party was going to win.
The really big surprise was how well Zac Goldsmith did, despite the Conservatives’ current unpopularity, despite being a toff, despite being a Zionist, despite running an incredibly, unbelievably bad campaign.
The net result of the Mayoral election is that the Labour Party is now, effectively, split in two, with two high profile powerbases which will now be at war with each other. We have the nutty extremist lefty Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn, which is unelectable. And we have the Muslim Labour Party, which with current demographics has no option but to appear to be more inclusive, so less nutty. Obviously Sadiq Khan is far more likely of the two to make it to Prime Minister, the creeping Islamification of Britain will gain him votes whereas Corbyn’s complete unsuitability for purpose will lose him votes.
Look at the above graph and you will see how deeply unpopular and unelectable Corbyn is. Every new leader has a honeymoon period when they get disproportionate electoral support and also every opposition receives protest votes in local elections and by elections. So, as history has proven, it is automatic for a new opposition leader to do well in their first local elections. Until Corbyn. If there was a General Election tomorrow the Labour Party would be utterly destroyed. They really are in the deepest possible merde, with no way out because if there was a leadership election Corbyn would win it with a landslide. It really is time for moderate Labour MPs to defect, there is no future for them in the Labour Party.
So to Scotland, the Parliament there has 129 seats and the SNP have been in power since 2007, when the Scottish Labour Party had self destructed and the Conservatives were incredibly unpopular (they only won 17 seats in that election). So the SNP have had 9 years to prove convincingly that they are the party of lies, thuggery, corruption and bad governance. It really is amazing that anybody still votes for them. Also the SNP have no political purpose, they lost the referendum about their main political philosophy and sending SNP MPs to Westminster has just made Scotland more impotent and irrelevant. So it is no surprise that the SNP did badly in these elections and failed to get an overall majority. It is the beginning of the end for them, they have no purpose and are bad at running anything.
Scotland is traditionally socialist, they rely on handouts from the English, so before the SNP the Labour Party ruled supreme. Not any more, look at their number of Assembly seats won: 1999 56, 2003 50, 2007 46, 2011 37, 2016 24. Part of this was historic local difficulties, but this time it was 100% the Corbyn effect. Which was actually far worse that the figures suggest because the voters were deserting the SNP in droves.
Which brings us to Ruth Davidson, the superstar of all these elections. She capitalised on the unpopularity of Corbyn and the fading SNP to deliver an outstanding election and is now the Leader of the Opposition in Scotland. The Conservatives more than doubled their number of seats, going from 15 to 31. The swing to them was 10.6%, the swing against the SNP was 2.3% and against Labour was 7.2%. The reality is that for a Scottish voter the Conservatives are by far the best choice, they are the party of good governance, in sharp contrast to the SNP. And voting Conservative gives Scotland far more influence and power at Westminster.
It will be interesting to see what Ruth Davidson does. If she contests a Westminster by-election and wins she would stack the Conservative leadership contest on its head. She really is in a position now where she has the potential to be our next Prime Minister.
Among all the stories and noise it has gone largely unnoticed how brilliantly well UKIP did. They had a very strong showing in the 2015 General Election, their outcome crippled by the FPTP electoral system. This has continued with them nearly doubling their number of local Councillors in this electoral cycle from 33 to 58. And in the Welsh Assembly they had a positive swing of 12.5%, going from zero seats to 7. UKIP have real political momentum now and are bubbling just under political breakout. What could achieve this for them is non Muslim voters deserting the increasingly Muslim Labour Party. It is increasingly obvious that a vote for Labour is a vote for the Islamification of Britain.
And of course our political theatre isn’t over for the summer. We have the EU elections. Labour have, quite sensibly, largely kept out of this, getting too involved would probably destroy them in their currently fragile state. But the Conservative party is massively divided and the internal debate there has turned quite nasty. It will be interesting to see how the rifts are healed. Whatever the outcome Cameron is probably finished, he has been deeply divisive and has made the internal party acrimony far worse. His party leadership skills in this debate have completely and utterly deserted him. He has been committing political suicide in slow motion.