Tactical Voting in GE19

On 1 August this year there was a by-election in the Brecon and Radnorshire constituency in Wales which contains very harsh lessons and warnings for the upcoming General Election. Let’s look at the results:

  • LibDem 13,826
  • Conservative 12,401
  • Brexit Party 3,331
  • Labour 1,680
  • Loony 334
  • UKIP 224

Firstly let’s discount the Labour vote. They have no coherent policy on Brexit and they want to destroy this country. Only people who are a special sort of stupid or ignorant children would vote for them.

Then add together the three Leave party votes. 12,401 + 3,331 + 224 = 15,956. Which means that the voters of this constituency wanted a Leave MP but ended up with a Remain MP. They got the exact opposite result to what they wanted. The Leave parties cannibalised each other, losing the election, and are set to do exactly the same again in the upcoming General Election.

Now look at the list of parties. Notice no Green Party, though they normally contest everything that they can. Also notice no Plaid Cymru, even though this is in Wales! What you see here is an electoral pact where the remain parties got together and put up the one candidate between them. Concentrating the vote and winning the election.

The lesson here is very, very clear. In the upcoming General Election the majority of constituencies will turn out a Leave vote only to end up with Remain MPs. We know that the Remain parties are organising electoral pacts again. And we know that, as things currently stand, the Conservatives refuse to do a deal with The Brexit Party. Many Conservative MPs, quite rightly, are furious about this.

There are many constituencies, especially in the North of England, which, for deeply ingrained cultural reasons, will never return a Conservative MP. Yet they voted to leave the EU in the referendum with large majorities. They are largely fed up with Labour, which is now the enemy of the working class, so the only place they have left for them is The Brexit Party. However with cannibalised voting many of these constituencies will still return Labour MPs. Exactly what the majority don’t want.

Right across the Midlands, conversely, there are Labour constituencies where the Conservatives can easily win. But won’t if The Brexit Party is stealing their votes.

You can see the potential disaster we are heading for.

Now for another very stark lesson from history. In the 2005 General Election Tony Blair won with just 35.2% of the national votes. So, effectively, we are now in the situation where The Brexit Party could give us a Corbyn nightmare government. All Labour need is around a third of the votes, whilst the other parties split the rest between them.

This is incredibly ironic because Nigel Farage has worked his lifetime to achieve Brexit. And now, with this achievement within grasp, he is working hard to prevent it. Vote Farage get Corbyn.

There is something you can do to stop this calamity. No matter what your politics are, vote Conservative. Only vote Farage if the Conservatives really have no chance whatsoever in your constituency. This will give us the Brexit which is the best possible future for the United Kingdom and everyone who lives here.

3 Comments


  1. It’s true that TBP is risking a damaging split of the leave vote this GE, but another factor is that they are offering an extremely different version of brexit to the one Boris is. By many accounts, Boris’ deal is only marginally better than May’s.

    Farage could well be making a terrible mistake by fielding candidates, but then again Boris could be making an equally egregious one by not entering into a pact with Farage. But he seems that he will not can his deal. What do you think Bruce, can you live with the deal Boris has set out? Should he have just committed to no deal at this point?

    For my part, I will be voting tory but then i live in an extremely safe conservative constituency anyway.
    I am trying to be hopeful that the recent disgraceful tactics of remain parties in parliament will finally explode in their faces this GE, but a lot of parties seem to be sharing good portions of the vote share so it seems more difficult then ever to predict what the outcome will be.

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  2. If I vote Tory, I just get Theresa’s surrender deal, a Blue tinted Labour manifesto, high taxes, high spending.

    If I can’t have actual policies I like, I’d rather have a hung parliament.

    The economy has been racing along ever since the whole machinery of government was stopped. Just like in Belgium a few years before.

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