How this blog predicted the general election results, repeatedly

Cameron victory 650

It started back in September last year with the article “Why the Conservatives will win the 2015 General Election” written at a time when Labour had a 3 point opinion poll lead. It said “the Conservatives will still win an outright victory” and explained and analysed the reasons why. All of which turned out to be true 8 months later. The writing was on the wall and it was obvious to anyone capable of independent critical thought.

Also in September UKIP getting just one MP was predicted in this article.

Then in February there was the article“Psephology of GE15”, which made many key points and predicted, accurately, the results of all the parties.
Libdems: “GE15 will not see the Libdems wiped out…. But they will still lose a chunk out of the 57.”
UKIP: “their support is fairly evenly spread it won’t translate into as many seats as you would expect. In fact they will need to work hard to hold onto the two that they stole.”
Labour: “So Labour are shedding a lot of voters. And they are moving over to UKIP, The Green Party and the SNP. In GE10 in Scotland Labour won 41 seats, Libdems 11, SNP 6 and Conservatives 1. Expect upheaval. Scotland has suddenly become very highly politicised and Labour are going to be the biggest losers”
Conservatives: “I really cannot see the Conservatives losing GE15”
So a concise and startlingly accurate overview of all the results was given 3 months before election day.

And then, just before the election, when all the pundits were predicting a closely matched result there was this article “Election night surprises” this explained exactly how and why the Conservatives would win and analysed why the polls were wrong, it finished with the advice “But it is worth pointing out that bookmakers are still offering 10 to 1 for an overall Conservative victory.” So the polsters’ mistakes were pointed out before the election even took place.

So it was not just a case of saying that the Conservatives would win, it was detailed analysis of all the parties, what the real issues and political trends were, how these would impinge on votes and constituencies and what the results would be. And the three articles above got it ALL right.


  1. Damn! I meant to check what the bookies were predicting. They’re nearly always right.


  2. I read your blog and it had about as much predictive insight as a horoscope.


    1. Fred,

      It is obvious that you didn’t read all four articles. So you look very silly.


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