EU. In or out doesn’t make much difference economically

EU Cameron 650

Now we have banished the evil of socialism from Westminster for five (and probably ten) years there are some other very interesting democracy set pieces to look forwards to. London mayoral election on 5 May 2016, Scottish Parliament election on the same day and the EU in/out referendum scheduled for 2017, once David Cameron has renegotiated our terms of membership. It is the last of these that will have the least real effect. And here’s why:

  • We are not in Schengen, so no change to how we run our borders.
  • We are not in the Euro or EMU, so no change to our currency and all the many other matters that this impinges on.
  • We are not in the Area of freedom, security and justice, so no change here.
  • We are only partially in the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union, so not so much change here.
  • We will still have to have free movement of labour with the EU, otherwise our economy would be trashed. We need to reduce non EU Muslim immigration. But much of the EU has the same problem.
  • The EU needs us for trade more than we need them. So free trade with the EU would continue.
  • We would still have to pay into the EU for the administration of free trade. Though we might be able to reduce our contribution to the ERDF and some of the 800 other subsidy schemes. Remember we already also pay towards the WTO, World Bank and IMF.
  • We will still need to implement much EU law where it is intended to create a level trade playing field with the reduction of non-tariff barriers.
  • The EU is joining TTIP, we would have no option to join this whether we are in the EU or not. Likewise CETA and, via the USA, TPP. We are headed towards global free trade at some speed, however the British people vote.
  • Many of the changes David Cameron wants, such as measures to prevent benefits tourism, are also wanted by other EU countries. So they will come whether we are in or out.
  • There are many EU science and R&D projects that we would be silly to leave. So we will still pay for them.

So what would the effects of leaving be:

  • We might get a bit more control over our borders. But not much really when you look at the commercial realities.
  • We would possibly get away with implementing less EU law. But in reality a lot of trade law is transferring to TTIP anyway. Which we would have no option but to be in.
  • We would still have to pay a lot of money into the EU. But less than now. For example Norway (not in the EU), is paying €1167 million over five years to the EU for social and economic cohesion in the Internal Market.
  • We would have far less say in what the EU does.

Despite the above I still think that we should leave the EU and here is why:

  • The EU is seen by the people who run it as a “project” and their aim, by all possible means, is to create a federal European state. We need to be as far as possible away from such stupidity.
  • The EU is fundamentally a socialist institution, they believe that the state (or in their case the superstate) is the answer to many problems. In reality it IS the problem. People know how to run their own lives and spend their own money far better than the state does. We need far less socialism not more.
  • The EU is riddled with corruption, cronyism and corporatism. On an industrial scale. They do absolutely zero to cure these even though they are blatant. This waste of taxes that hard working people have paid is utterly immoral.
  • The cultural and economic differences within the EU are too great for it to work as the true believers in the project want. It is doomed to fail, we should not hang around to be part of that failure.

So my misgivings are political, because that is where the EU is the biggest danger to the British way of life.

 

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