The two top epidemiological statistical teams working on Chinese Virus in the UK are Imperial/Ferguson and Oxford/Gupta. Imperial said that quarter of a million of us were going to die, the government listened to them and the country was locked down. Then they revised their estimate sharply down to 20,000 (click). Now, as you can see above they have revised their estimate down to 5,700 deaths. And remember that these will mostly be people who were already ill. So the extra deaths caused by Chinese Virus this year will be minimal.
So Chinese Virus is far, far less dangerous than annual seasonal ‘Flu. And we don’t lock down for seasonal ‘Flu each year. The biggest medical problem we have now is the lock down itself. Very many people are getting seriously depressed. And already there are reports of suicides.
Another way to look at this is to take excess seasonal mortalities. Below you will see the bang up to date graph for Europe going back a few years. You can see very clearly that this year is not exceptional. If anything there are fewer deaths.
A previous article here (CLICK) made the epidemiological point that the lock down was futile. Now we can clearly see that it is causing harm. It must be stopped immediately.
Lets put this in a broader context. Chinese Virus in China is just about over. It killed 2 people per million. The UK has 67 million people. If we experience the same as China that is 134 deaths! In Singapore, where they have hotter, sunnier weather, the death rate is 0.3 per million. In Italy they have a very old population and very high pollution. Their epidemic is past its peak and deaths are 136 per million. A rate that would give the UK 9,112 deaths at the same stage.
The next two weeks will give us some spectacular tabloid and BBC headlines as the people who are going to die do so. Whilst Piers Morgan will continue to boost GMB ratings with his hysteria and baseless fearmongering. But the science is irrefutable. We should all be back at work.