If you average out the opinion polls on voting intention the Labour Party are consistently around 3% ahead of the Conservative party. Not only that, the Labour Party have two immense advantages:
- UK MP constituencies are gerrymandered. It takes far fewer votes to get a Labour MP elected than it takes to get a Conservative MP elected. During this parliament, as part of the coalition agreement, the Conservatives tried to restore fairness. However the LibDems reneged on the agreement, so it didn’t happen.
- Election fraud using postal votes. Every time I have seen this it has been for a Labour candidate. It happens on a huge scale. At the last General Election Baroness Warsi said that it cost the Conservatives at least three seats. Postal votes for non registered disabled really should be stopped. Fraud is just too easy.
Despite this the Conservatives will still win an outright victory. And here’s why:
- At General Elections people tend to vote for who will be the best Prime Minister of Great Britain. This is not even a competition. Even very many Labour voters think that Cameron is vastly better. Cameron is prodigiously clever and well educated. He got a first class honours degree at Oxford and his tutor, Professor Vernon Bogdanor, said he was “one of the ablest students he had ever taught”. Not only that, Cameron has real world experience, unlike many in the political class today. He was Director of Corporate Affairs at Carlton Communications for seven years. And he has been an excellent Prime Minister for the last four years. Compare that with Ed Miliband who staggers from disaster to disaster and who couldn’t run a bath. Even many Labour politicians have said that Miliband isn’t fit for purpose.
- The policy that most people consider when voting in a General Election is the economy. Here, once again, Osborne is miles ahead. And once again many Labour voters agree. He is certainly the best Chancellor since WW2 and he has walked the high wire between controlling the deficit and encouraging growth with supreme skill, creating more jobs than the whole of the rest of the EU put together. We now have one of the world’s fastest growing economies, which is amazing when you remember the monstrous recession that Gordon Brown dropped us all into.
- Currently Scotland have 40 Labour MPs. After the General Election they won’t have. A vast number of people in Scotland are very unhappy with the Labour Party and will vote accordingly.
- UKIP voters will return to the Conservative fold in huge numbers. The fact is that the only way to get an EU in/out referendum is to vote Conservative. And UKIP are morally obnoxious with a long history of bigotry and dodgy dealings. However Red UKIP will be taking a lot of blue collar votes away from Labour, especially in the North.
- The Liberal Democrats have lost a big fraction of their voter base. There is immense disenchantment with the party. Many of their seats had Conservative candidates coming second in 2010. In 2015 they will find it a lot easier to come first.
- I could go on about the other policy areas where the Conservatives have been brilliant. Making the NHS work so much better, no more Mid Staffs disasters, and not the slow motion train crash that is the Labour controlled Welsh NHS. In education we were falling down the international league tables under Labour, now we are climbing them again. And only the Conservatives can control the benefit system which had got completely out of control under Labour with a vast feckless benefits culture that was parasitic on the hard working tax payer.
It is not just me who knows that the Conservatives will win, many experienced and intelligent commentators are saying the same. Let’s face it, no sound minded people are ever going to vote for Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister.